fed december hike Odds Near 78% After October Hold

A fed december hike is now the base case on Polymarket after the Federal Reserve held rates on Wednesday and two voters pushed for a hike anyway. At 06:11 UTC (09:11 MSK) on Thursday, October 29, the Yes price on "+25 bps after the December 2026 meeting" sat at about 77.5%, while "no change" was near 19.5% and a cut was priced near zero.

What actually happened

The Federal Open Market Committee voted on October 28 to leave the overnight funds rate in a 3.75%–4% range, according to CNBC. Two of the twelve voters dissented and wanted a quarter-point increase: Cook and Hammack. The statement kept the line that inflation remains elevated, then said the committee was waiting for the "accumulation of more information" before further action.

That mix is hawkish enough to move a December contract without changing November policy. A hold with two hike dissents tells traders the next move is more likely up than down if data stay sticky. CNN's live coverage of the same day tracked the same hold-and-dissent story, so the print is not a one-outlet reading.

Warsh used the press conference to sketch process as well as rates. CNBC reported he said one of the FOMC meetings in 2027 will focus exclusively on broad monetary policy strategy, with neither a funds-rate vote nor a policy statement expected at that session. Process talk does not resolve December, but it reinforces that this cycle is still being written in real time.

What Polymarket thinks

The event is "Fed Decision in December?". Our snapshot at 06:11 UTC (09:11 MSK) on October 29 used midpoints from Polymarket's outcome prices:

• +25 bps: about 77.5% Yes
• No change: about 19.5% Yes
• +50 bps or more: about 2.45% Yes
• -25 bps: about 0.45% Yes
• -50 bps or more: about 0.25% Yes

Event volume sat near $7.1 million, with about $2.0 million in the prior 24 hours, so these lines are thick enough that a few retail tickets will not move them much. The +25 bps contract alone had roughly $1.7 million of cumulative volume at the snapshot.

Compare that shape with our earlier Fed October hold and Polymarket October Fed odds pieces, when a December hike was still a minority view ahead of this week's meeting. The October hold with two hike dissents flipped the curve. A fed december hike now carries more than three-quarters of the probability mass on the board we track.

A patient hold with two hike dissents is how markets reprice December without changing the overnight rate today.

Why crypto and rates still share a tape

Bitcoin traded near $80,157 on CoinGecko at the same 06:11 UTC snapshot, down about 0.8% on the day after the Fed print. Spot ETF flows and the daily Polymarket ladders still react to every shift in hike odds, which is why we keep the Fed board next to Bitcoin October 29 odds. A higher path for the funds rate can pressure risk assets into December even if the October decision itself was a hold.

Do not paste CME FedWatch percentages into this piece unless you refresh them live. Our rule for this batch is Polymarket midpoints plus attributed news, nothing invented from a dashboard we did not save.

What to do as a reader

Read the resolution source before you trade a fed december hike contract. Polymarket defines the outcome from the upper bound of the target federal funds range after the December 2026 FOMC meeting, using the Fed's own calendar and materials. Check the live December event against the official statement when it lands.

Mark that the December meeting is still weeks away. Odds can swing on CPI, jobs, and speeches long before the vote. If you trade, size for a multi-week market, not a one-candle scalp, and treat 77.5% as a snapshot, not a promise.

Nothing here is investment advice. Prediction markets can lose you your whole stake, and a high Yes price can still resolve No if the committee holds or cuts.

Sources: Polymarket Fed Decision in December, CNBC on the October hold, CNN live Fed coverage.