Bitcoin October 29 odds: $80K at 71% With the Fed in Play

Bitcoin October 29 odds give the bulls a real edge for the first time this week, and the Fed decision now lands before the finish line. Polymarket's "Bitcoin above ___ on October 29?" event had the $80,000 line at about 71% Yes at 06:18 UTC (09:18 MSK) on Wednesday, October 28. CoinGecko had BTC near $80,854 at the same time, up about 1.4% on the day after it briefly slipped under $80,000 on Tuesday.

What actually happened

Tuesday started weak. CoinDesk reported bitcoin dipping 0.4% to near $79,700 as crypto ignored a rally in Asian tech stocks, with South Korea's Kospi up 3.1%. The DeFi index fell 1.8%, the worst of CoinDesk's indexes. The Federal Reserve opened its two-day meeting the same day, and CME's FedWatch showed around a 90% chance of no change.

The flows turned. US spot bitcoin ETFs took in $110 million on Monday, according to Farside Investors data cited by CoinDesk, ending two days of outflows. Galaxy's head of research Alex Thorn published a note arguing the bear market ended in June below $58,000 and that bitcoin is in an accumulation phase. He flagged a weekly close below $76,540, followed by no recovery within a month, as the level that would challenge that view.

By Wednesday morning, BTC was back above $80,000. Ether followed, trading near $2,349 on CoinGecko, up about 1.7% on the day. That small move did a lot to the daily markets, because short-dated brackets react to every few hundred dollars near a round number. The October 28 contract, which was a pure coin flip at $80,000 yesterday, had the same line near 83.5% Yes at our snapshot.

What Polymarket thinks

Here is the October 29 ladder from our 06:18 UTC (09:18 MSK) snapshot, using midpoints:

• Above $76,000: about 99%
• Above $78,000: about 94.5%
• Above $80,000: about 71%
• Above $82,000: about 28.5%
• Above $84,000: about 6.5%

The headline question we track is "Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on October 29?" at about 71% Yes, with a bid of 70 cents and an ask of 71 cents. Total event volume was about $109,000, so a few large orders can still move a bracket.

The shape says traders expect a range of roughly $79,000 to $83,000 at noon ET Thursday. Compare that with our Bitcoin October 28 odds piece, where the center sat right on $80,000. The whole curve has shifted about one bracket higher in a day.

Why the Fed matters for Bitcoin October 29 odds

Yesterday's market resolved before the Fed spoke. This one does not. The FOMC statement and the press conference that usually follows both land before the October 29 noon ET candle, so any surprise in tone hits this contract directly.

A hold is close to fully priced, so the risk sits in the language. Traders will look for hints about another increase before year-end. A hawkish tilt could push BTC back under $80,000 overnight, while a calm statement leaves the current ladder intact. We tracked how this setup evolved in Fed October hold and Polymarket October Fed odds.

These brackets are really a bet on how traders read one press conference, plus about 20 hours of drift.

What to do as a reader

Read the rules before you touch Bitcoin October 29 odds. Resolution uses Binance BTC/USDT only, not Coinbase or an index, and only the 12:00 ET candle close. Check the live Polymarket event and Binance's chart side by side.

Mark the Fed time in your calendar: 21:00 MSK tonight. Prices in daily brackets often jump within minutes of the statement. If you trade, size small, because a 71% bracket can drop to 40% on one hourly candle.

Watch the ETF flow numbers for October 27 and 28 when they come out. Another inflow day would support the current ladder, and a return to outflows would weaken it. Nothing here is investment advice, and prediction markets can lose you your whole stake.

Sources: Polymarket October 29 event, CoinDesk on Tuesday's dip, CoinDesk on Galaxy's note and CoinGecko.