Fed October hold at 81% on Polymarket as CPI Week Starts

The Fed October hold is now the market's clear base case. In our snapshot at 06:03 UTC (09:03 MSK) on October 13, Polymarket's "Fed Decision in October?" priced "No change" at 81% and a 25 bps hike at 20%, with cuts near zero. CME FedWatch tells a similar story, but the September CPI print on October 14 can still shake both.

What actually happened

The Fed raised its target range by a quarter point to 3.75%–4.00% on September 16. Morningstar notes it was the first hike since 2023 and the vote was unanimous. Most officials also penciled in another quarter-point move before year-end.

Hike bets for October have been fading since. Morningstar says investors saw a 22% chance of an October hike as of Monday, down from 55% right after the September decision. Weak September payrolls, just 29,000 jobs per our September jobs report coverage, did a lot of that work.

On October 8 we wrote that Polymarket had a hike at only about 15.5% in our October rate hike odds piece. This morning it is back near 20%. So the hold is still favored, but the hike tail has fattened a bit.

What Polymarket thinks

On the Fed Decision in October market, "No change" traded at 81% Yes in our 06:03 UTC snapshot. "25 bps increase" sat at 20%. The 25 bps cut and 50+ bps buckets were below 1%.

This is a deep market by Polymarket standards. When we pulled event data a few minutes later it showed about $33.7M in total volume. Resolution is based on the upper bound of the fed funds target range in the FOMC statement after the October 27–28 meeting.

That makes the Fed October hold a roughly four-in-five call. It is not a lock. One hot data point can push the hike bucket back toward a third, and our Polymarket October Fed odds explainer covers how these brackets have swung before.

What could flip it

CPI is the big one. investingLive says the market expects headline CPI up 0.6% in September with core near 0.2%, while Morningstar cites a FactSet consensus of 0.5% headline and 0.2% core. Those headline forecasts differ, so we are showing both instead of picking one.

Energy is doing the heavy lifting on headline. investingLive points to Brent above $100 and says Goldman Sachs had expected an October hike, but on the assumption oil would fall toward $85. A firm core reading would likely revive October hike bets. A soft one would push the action to December.

December is where the street really leans. FXBus's October 12 FedWatch read showed a 69.5% chance of a cumulative 25 bps hike by December and 14.7% for 50 bps. So the debate is mostly about timing, not direction.

October is priced as a pause. December is priced as the next hike. CPI decides how loud that gap gets.

What to do as a reader

Mark the calendar in your own time zone. CPI is Wednesday at 8:30 ET (15:30 MSK). PPI and retail sales follow Thursday, Warsh speaks early Friday, and the FOMC statement lands after the October 27–28 meeting.

Also watch the dot-plot math. Most officials penciled in one more quarter point this year, a few were open to half a point and two were fine holding, according to Morningstar. With only October and December left, every skipped meeting puts more weight on the last one.

Watch core, not headline. Both previews expect headline to look hot because of gasoline. The market will trade the core number, because that is what tells the Fed whether energy is leaking into everything else.

If you quote these Fed October hold odds, keep the timestamp. Our figure is 81% "No change" at 09:03 MSK October 13. Refresh the event page after CPI before you share a newer number. Nothing here is investment advice.