alaska senate odds: Peltola 72.5% vs Sullivan on Polymarket

The alaska senate odds on Polymarket lean clearly toward the challenger, even though the polls are close. At our 06:03 UTC snapshot on November 1 (09:03 MSK), Democrat Mary Peltola traded at 72.5% to win Alaska's US Senate race, while Republican incumbent Dan Sullivan sat at 28.5%. Election day is Tuesday, November 3.

What actually happened

Alaska has become one of the closest Senate races of the 2026 midterms. Sullivan, a two-term senator, faces Peltola, the former at-large House member. A Rasmussen Reports survey of 775 likely voters taken October 12 to 15 found Peltola at 44% and Sullivan at 42%, with Republican Gerald Heikes at 4%, a second Republican named Daniel J. Sullivan at 3% and 6% undecided. In September, Rasmussen had the race tied at 39% each.

The final-stretch polling has stayed tight. The Alaska Survey Research poll of 1,326 likely voters, listed by PollResults.org, shows Peltola up 1.6 points in its head-to-head result. Politix+ puts her lead at 1.8 points across 13 polls, at 49.3% to 47.5%. A New York Times/Siena poll from late September to October 1 had a wider seven-point Peltola edge, while a few September polls from other firms showed Sullivan narrowly ahead.

What Polymarket thinks

Here are the alaska senate odds from the Polymarket API at 06:03:20 UTC:

• Mary Peltola: about 72.5% Yes
• Dan Sullivan: about 28.5% Yes
• Other listed candidates: under 1% each

The winner market has about $2.37 million in total volume, with roughly $76,000 traded in the previous 24 hours. A companion market on the first-round margin splits most of its weight between a Peltola win by 0 to 3 points (about 24%), a Peltola win by 3 to 6 points (about 24%) and a Sullivan win by 0 to 3 points (about 19.5%).

So the crowd expects a close count but trusts Peltola to come out ahead more often than not. A roughly 72% price on a race with a one- to two-point polling lead is a confident call. Traders may be weighing Peltola's past statewide wins under ranked-choice voting, the national environment, or both.

You can check the live board on the Polymarket Alaska Senate page.

Polls say coin flip with a lean. The market says Peltola about three times in four.

Why ranked-choice voting matters

Alaska lets voters rank candidates. If no one clears a majority of first-choice votes, the last-place candidates are eliminated and their ballots move to the next choice. Rasmussen asked about this directly: 48% named Sullivan as their second choice and 47% picked Peltola.

That near-even split means the extra Republican names on the ballot could matter. Votes for Heikes or the second Sullivan may flow back to the incumbent in later rounds. If Peltola's first-round lead is thin, the transfers will decide it. Counting can also take longer than in states without ranked choice.

That is why the margin market is useful context. If Peltola leads the first round by only a point or two, the outcome hinges on how many Heikes and Daniel J. Sullivan voters ranked the incumbent second. If her first-round lead is three points or more, the transfers would have to break heavily toward Sullivan to flip it, and the market's 72.5% price looks more comfortable.

The race also feeds the national picture. Polymarket's main Senate control market had Democrats near 72.5% at the same snapshot. We covered that broader map in senate 2026 democrats and another tossup in texas senate odds.

What to do as a reader

Treat the alaska senate odds as one input next to the polls, not a replacement for them. The gap between a 1.6-point polling lead and a 72.5% market price is exactly where traders disagree.

Refresh the numbers before acting. Election markets swing hard on early returns, and Alaska's count may run for days after November 3.

Read the resolution rules carefully. The market resolves once the Associated Press, Fox News and NBC all call the race for the same candidate, and falls back to official certification if they do not agree. Under ranked choice, that could take a while.

Nothing here is investment or political advice. Prediction markets can be wrong, and you can lose your whole stake.