Netanyahu crypto bypass: Israel Votes, Odds Near 27%
The Netanyahu crypto bypass pitch hangs over Israel's October 27 vote, after the Bank of Israel shot it down and Polymarket priced him near 27% to stay PM.
- Netanyahu told Channel 10 on Friday, October 23, that "there could be sanctions, and sanctions on banks," and said "very true" when asked if he meant crypto, per Reuters.
- The Bank of Israel said cryptocurrencies "cannot be used as a route for bypassing sanctions," and more than 100 experts and former officials signed a statement of "grave concern."
- Polymarket's main Israel PM market, with about $57.2 million traded, had Gadi Eisenkot near 55%, Netanyahu near 26.5% and Naftali Bennett near 6.5% on election morning.
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Israelis are voting today, and the Netanyahu crypto bypass idea is one of the strangest storylines heading into the count. Four days before the October 27 election, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said Israel should prepare a "bypass economy" built on crypto and blockchain in case its banks get hit by sanctions. The Bank of Israel shot that down within a day. On Polymarket, his odds of staying prime minister sat near 26.5% at 06:03 UTC (09:03 MSK) on Tuesday, with polls open across the country.
What actually happened
The comment came in an interview with Israel's Channel 10 economic network. Netanyahu said Israel had to plan for a scenario where sanctions reach its banking system. "You know, there are currencies that can bypass (sanctions). We are also working on that," he said, according to Reuters. Asked whether he meant crypto, he said yes and added blockchain. He also said he had asked advisers to prepare a plan.
The backdrop is real diplomatic pressure. Reuters noted that Britain, France and Canada said last month they would block imports from Israeli settlements in the West Bank. That is far from cutting off Israeli banks, but it makes a sanctions question feel less abstract to voters.
The pushback was fast. On Saturday the Bank of Israel issued a rare public rebuke, saying the right path was to keep ties with major trading partners and focus on preventing sanctions. Netanyahu replied on Channel 14: "I hear the resistance; I am taking it into account," adding, "I listen, but I do what I think [is best]," as quoted by The Times of Israel.
Now the vote itself is here. The Times of Israel's live blog reported polling stations opening across the country on Tuesday morning, and coverage from the BBC and The Guardian frames this as one of the most consequential elections in Israel's history. Polls close at 10 p.m. local time, which is 20:00 UTC or 23:00 MSK, and exit polls follow right after.
Why crypto people are wincing
Former bank supervisor Yair Avidan told Ynet that moving a payment onto a blockchain "does not make sanctions disappear." Payments still need banks, payment firms and trading partners that follow sanctions rules. Al Jazeera's explainer landed in the same place: crypto can be a side channel, but it cannot replace a banking system for a whole economy.
Then there is the optics problem. The best-known users of crypto as a sanctions workaround are Russia and Iran, and the experts' statement compared the plan to tactics used by criminal groups. For an industry that spent years arguing it is not a sanctions-evasion tool, a sitting prime minister pitching exactly that is a gift to critics.
A head of government saying "crypto can dodge sanctions" is the opposite of the pitch the industry wants regulators to hear.
What Polymarket thinks
The Netanyahu crypto bypass talk is not what moves this market, but the market leans against him anyway. In our Polymarket API snapshot at 06:03 UTC (09:03 MSK) on October 27, the "Prime Minister of Israel after the next election?" event showed Eisenkot at about 55%, Netanyahu at about 26.5% and Bennett at about 6.5%.
The headline question we track is "Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?" at roughly 27% Yes. A separate market on the winning party had Eisenkot's Yashar near 71.5% to win the most seats and Likud near 27.5%. Likud's seat-count market had 20-24 seats as the favorite near 39%.
Final surveys explain the lean. Reports on the last polls had Yashar ahead of Likud, with neither bloc projected to reach the 61 seats needed to govern. Our earlier Israel election odds piece had Eisenkot near 48% and Netanyahu near 36%, so the gap has widened since then.
How this market can still surprise you
This market resolves on who actually becomes prime minister, not on who wins the most seats. Coalition building in Israel can take weeks, and full results may take days. A deadlocked Knesset could mean long talks, deals nobody expected, or even another election.
That is why a 55% favorite is not a lock. If you followed our coverage of Iran ceasefire odds, you know regional events can reshape Israeli politics fast.
What to do as a reader
If you trade the Netanyahu crypto bypass headline, trade the election, not the crypto angle. No Israeli crypto plan exists in public, no bill has been filed, and the central bank is against it. None of this is a reason to buy any token.
Check the live Polymarket Israel PM market before acting. Prices will swing hard when exit polls land after 20:00 UTC. Watch coalition math, not just the first-place party, and expect fake "exit poll" screenshots on X before the real ones.
Prediction markets are speculative and you can lose your whole stake. Size small, read the resolution rules, and nothing here is investment advice.
Sources: Reuters via Investing.com, The Times of Israel live blog, Al Jazeera, Ynet and BBC.
Not financial advice. DYOR, ser.
