Iran ceasefire odds step down as the dates get later

Iran ceasefire odds on Polymarket are a ladder of dates, not a single yes-or-no. The page opened for this article is titled "US-Iran ceasefire continues through...?" A separate analysis dated September 28, 2026 shows an earlier and lower set of prices. The two are not averaged here.

TL;DR - On the October 2 board, "continues through October 7" is priced at 90 percent and "through October 31" at 60 percent. Later dates are lower. - The same page's FAQ still calls "September 20" the leading outcome at 100 percent, and it gives a different opening date than the market-context panel. - A September 28 write-up had October 31 at 52.5 percent in its table and 53 percent in a summary line. That page does not confirm today's board.

What actually happened

The Iran ceasefire odds market is a set of nested dates. Holding through a later date implies holding through the earlier ones, which is why the prices step down as the calendar moves out. The trading ladder opened for this article shows October 7 at 90 percent, with about $110,000 in volume on that row. October 15 is at 78 percent, with about $34,791. October 31 is at 60 percent, with about $978,070. November 15 is at 42 percent, with about $73. November 30 is at 37 percent, with about $279,797. December 31 is at 32 percent, with about $274,483. Total volume on the page is $5,420,448. The FAQ rounds the same activity to $5.4 million.

Yes and no prices on the ladder do not add to a dollar. October 7 is 90 cents yes and 11 cents no. October 31 is 60 cents yes and 41 cents no. December 31 is 32 cents yes and 69 cents no. Read those as the quotes on the screen.

An experimental summary on the page, updated 1:15 a.m. UTC on October 2 (4:15 a.m. in Moscow), says it does not decide how the market resolves. In paraphrase, it says late-September UN General Assembly diplomacy produced indirect U.S.-Iran talks through Qatari mediators, the first since June, around a seven-day Iranian proposal to reopen the Strait of Hormuz if the United States lifts a naval blockade, unfreezes assets, and eases oil sanctions. It says President Trump publicly rejected that offer as insufficient while leaving room for more talks and a possible return to military action after the November 3 midterms, and that Iran had received a U.S. counterproposal by early October and was reviewing it. It also says the two sides agree on core steps but not on sequencing, and that sanctions, the blockade, and preparations for renewed hostilities are still in place. That paragraph is Polymarket's summary, not a treaty text.

What Polymarket thinks

The exact question is "US-Iran ceasefire continues through...?" The visible ladder's highest open price is October 7 at 90 percent. The heaviest volume row is October 31 at 60 percent, on about $978,070, which is the row traders have used most among the dates still listed with size. November 15's $73 of volume is a stub next to that. Iran ceasefire odds, on this capture, say the near date is likely and the month of October is contested.

The page disagrees with itself about what "leading" means. The FAQ says the frontrunner is "September 20" at 100 percent, followed by "September 25" at 100 percent, and that a 100-cent price means the market assigns roughly a 100 percent chance. Those September rows are not on the ladder transcribed above. A resolved or expired row at 100 percent is a different object from October 7 at 90 percent. This article does not blend them into one probability.

The opening date is also printed twice. Market context says the market opened September 29, 2026 at 12:28 p.m. Eastern, which is 7:28 p.m. in Moscow. The FAQ says the market launched on September 17, 2026. Both lines are on the page that was opened. They are not reconciled there, so they are not reconciled here. The end date in the market-context panel is October 31, 2026. The FAQ says the market is scheduled to resolve on or around that day, and that trading stays open until an official result exists. A comment count of 220 is on the page. The rules section did not come through as readable text in this capture, so this article does not pretend to quote the resolution criteria from Polymarket itself.

What the September 28 page shows instead

PolyVeritas, in an analysis it says was produced with AI assistance and reviewed by its editors, is dated as of September 28, 2026. Its table lists September 30 at 93.5 percent, October 31 at 52.5 percent, November 30 at 36.5 percent, and December 31 at 32.5 percent. A "key takeaways" box on the same page prints October 31 at 53 percent, November 30 at 37 percent, and December 31 at 33 percent, and a later line says September 30 is 94 percent. Those are internal inconsistencies on one page. The table is the fuller grid. The other lines are noted so nobody treats 52.5 and 53 as two different markets.

Header volume on that page is $4,286,742, with liquidity of $320,165. The same article also writes the volume as $4.29 million and, in a FAQ, as $4.3 million. Use the header figure if you need one number from that day, and do not average it with the October 2 total of $5,420,448. The page says it closes October 31, 2026. It describes a qualifying U.S. action, for purposes of its explanation, as air strikes or surface-to-surface missiles that directly hit Iranian territory, and it says intercepted munitions, surface-to-air strikes, cyber operations, ground incursions, and small-arms fire do not qualify. That definition is PolyVeritas's account. It is not a rules block read off Polymarket on October 2.

The September 28 page says Trump rejected Iran's seven-day proposal on September 26, citing the Wall Street Journal, and it records an internal estimate of 92 percent for the September 30 outcome against the market's 93.5 percent. September 30 has since passed. Comparing 52.5 percent then with 60 percent on October 2 for the October 31 row is a change between two snapshots, not a blended "current" odds of 56 percent. This article will not compute that blend.

What to do as a reader (not a trade)

This is not investment advice. Iran ceasefire odds are a way to see how a crowd has priced a stack of deadlines. They are not a briefing on whether a strike is legal, wise, or imminent, and they are not a reason to trade oil, defense shares, or a token.

If you cite Iran ceasefire odds, cite the date and the row. "Ninety percent" without "October 7, as of the October 2 page" is how these ladders get misquoted. Reopen the market before you repeat a figure, because the September 28 page is already stale relative to the board opened for this piece. If you need the definition of a qualifying strike, read the rules on Polymarket itself. They were not readable in the capture used here, and a secondary site's paraphrase is not a substitute.

For other crowd-priced questions from this desk, see how October Fed odds are framed and how a prize market can attract attention. Neither contract is this ceasefire ladder. The board is Polymarket's US-Iran ceasefire continues through...?. The earlier snapshot is PolyVeritas's September 28 analysis.