Israel election odds: Eisenkot 48% vs Netanyahu 36% on Polymarket
Israel election odds favor Gadi Eisenkot: Polymarket has him near 48% to be the next PM, ahead of Netanyahu at about 36%, three weeks before the October 27 vote.
- Polymarket's "Prime Minister of Israel after the next election?" market had Eisenkot (spelled Eizenkot there) at 48.3% and Netanyahu at 35.5% at 06:04 UTC on October 7, with about $43.8 million traded.
- The Channel 12/Midgam poll gives Yashar 23 seats to Likud's 21. The opposition bloc gets 54 seats, Netanyahu's coalition 49, Arab parties 13. Nobody reaches 61.
- In a head-to-head, Eisenkot leads Netanyahu 41% to 38%. Netanyahu still beats Naftali Bennett 41% to 37%.
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Israel election odds now favor a change at the top. Three weeks before the October 27 Knesset vote, Polymarket gives former IDF chief Gadi Eisenkot about a 48% chance to be the next prime minister, ahead of Benjamin Netanyahu at roughly 36%, after a Channel 12 poll put Eisenkot's Yashar party in first place.
What actually happened
Israel votes on October 27. Candidate lists are closed, and the campaign has shifted from who can run to who can actually build a 61-seat majority in the 120-seat Knesset.
The Jerusalem Post, summarizing the N12 News survey, reports Yashar on 23 seats, Likud 21 and Bennett's list 13. Yisrael Beytenu and Yair Golan's Democrats get nine each. The Joint List and United Torah Judaism get eight each, Shas and Otzma Yehudit seven each, the Smotrich-Feiglin list six and Ra'am five. Ofer Winter's party polls 1.5%, below the threshold.
The bloc math is the whole story. The opposition bloc sits at 54, the outgoing coalition at 49, Arab parties at 13, and the Hendel-Zelekha reservists list at four. Even if the opposition adds Hendel-Zelekha, it is still short of 61 without Arab party support or a defection from an ultra-Orthodox party.
October 7 accountability is front and center. In the same poll, 65% said Netanyahu bears "a great deal of responsibility" for the failures of the October 7 massacre, and 66% support a state commission of inquiry.
What Polymarket thinks
On the Polymarket prime minister market, Eizenkot traded at 48.3% (bid 48.2, ask 48.4) when we checked at 09:04 Moscow time. Netanyahu was at 35.5%, Bennett at 9.5% and Avigdor Lieberman at 1.65%. Eisenkot's price was up about 1.4 points in a day, while Netanyahu's was up about 5.5 points over the week.
A separate market asks whether the election will happen as scheduled. It sits near 90% Yes, so traders see roughly a one-in-ten chance of a delay or some other surprise.
Read these Israel election odds carefully. The market is not saying Eisenkot wins a majority. It is saying he is slightly more likely than anyone else to end up prime minister after coalition talks, which can take weeks. Polymarket's end date for this market is October 28, but resolution depends on who actually becomes PM under its rules, so check the fine print.
Why first place is not a crown
Israel does not elect its prime minister directly. As the Israel 2026 political desk explains, the president consults the elected factions after the vote and hands the mandate to the lawmaker judged most likely to form a government. Being the largest party helps, but it guarantees nothing.
That is why the 23-to-21 gap matters less than the distance from 61. Netanyahu has the most experienced coalition machine and a disciplined base, and his path is to maximize right-wing turnout and keep allied parties above the threshold. Eisenkot's path needs a broad and awkward mix: Bennett's list, Lieberman, the Democrats and either Arab party backing from outside or an ultra-Orthodox break.
Eisenkot has challenged Netanyahu to a televised debate. Likud did not accept or reject it and instead asked which Arab and left-wing partners would stand behind Eisenkot. Expect that "who are your partners" line to dominate the last three weeks.
What to do as a reader
Treat these Israel election odds as a coalition bet, not a popularity contest. Watch three things: parties hovering near the threshold, any public commitment from an ultra-Orthodox party, and how Arab parties position themselves on supporting a government from outside.
Remember that polls are snapshots, and a list that drops below the threshold can move several seats between blocs overnight. Also, this market is deep at about $43.8 million, so prices move on real news, but they can still swing hard on a single poll.
If you follow the wider region, our Iran ceasefire odds and Iran invasion odds pieces cover markets that can react to the same headlines. This is not investment advice, just a map. Check the latest polls, read the resolution rules, and don't bet the rent on coalition math.
Not financial advice. DYOR, ser.
