Israel hung Knesset: Netanyahu Jumps to 48% After Exit Polls

An Israel hung Knesset is the most likely outcome after Tuesday's vote, and Polymarket has flipped hard toward Benjamin Netanyahu anyway. Exit polls from the three main broadcasters showed neither Netanyahu's bloc nor Gadi Eisenkot's opposition bloc reaching the 61 seats needed in the 120-seat parliament. At 06:03 UTC (09:03 MSK) on Wednesday, October 28, Polymarket priced Netanyahu at about 48% to be the next prime minister, up from about 27% a day earlier.

What actually happened

Israel voted on October 27 in what many voters called the most important election in the country's history. Turnout stood at 77.7% when polls closed at 22:00 local time (20:00 UTC, 23:00 MSK), the highest at that hour since 1999, according to the Central Elections Committee figures reported by the BBC.

The first exit polls looked like a win for Eisenkot. They gave his "Change Bloc" between 52 and 53 seats against about 50 for Netanyahu's coalition, and his supporters in Tel Aviv chanted "Bibi, go home". Then the broadcasters updated their numbers after midnight. By the early hours of Wednesday, Kan and Channel 13 showed a 51-51 tie, and Channel 12 had Netanyahu ahead by three.

All three exit polls had Likud as the largest single party with 27 seats. Eisenkot's new Yashar! list sat at 21 to 22. Netanyahu spoke after 3 a.m. in Jerusalem, called for "a strong, right-wing national government" and said a government relying on Arab parties must not be formed. Eisenkot told supporters the public had voted against Netanyahu and called him a caretaker prime minister without a mandate.

Official counting started overnight. An independent results tracker that reads the committee's count showed, with about half of expected votes counted at 07:54 Israel time (08:54 MSK), Netanyahu's bloc on 56 seats, the opposition Zionist parties on 49 and the two Arab lists on 15. Early counts swing a lot, so treat those as a moving snapshot, not a result.

Why an Israel hung Knesset is the base case

The math is brutal for both sides. Neither bloc reaches 61 in any exit poll. Eisenkot would need either the Arab parties or a defector from the right. Only one Arab party, Mansour Abbas's United Arab List, has openly backed working with the Change Bloc. Netanyahu would need to peel off a party from the other side or wait for the special ballots to tip a few seats.

After final results, the president consults all factions and picks the leader with the best chance to build a coalition. The Guardian notes that the designated candidate gets 28 days, with a possible two-week extension. If nobody manages it, Israel goes back to the polls. It held five elections between 2019 and 2022 for exactly this reason.

What Polymarket thinks

The headline market is "Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?" At our 06:03 UTC snapshot it showed about 48% Yes, with a bid of 47 cents and an ask of 48 cents. This market has traded more than $25 million on the Netanyahu line alone.

• Netanyahu: about 48%
• Gadi Eizenkot (Polymarket's spelling): about 35%
• Naftali Bennett: about 5.5%
• Avigdor Lieberman: about 2.5%

The side markets are just as telling. "Israel Election: Any Coalition Wins a Majority?" sat near 3.7% Yes, and Likud to win the most seats was near 98.7%. Traders are pricing a long, messy coalition fight, with Netanyahu as the slight favorite because he controls the largest party and the caretaker government.

Compare that with our Israel election odds piece, when Eisenkot led the same market at 48%, and our Netanyahu crypto bypass story from election day, when Netanyahu sat near 27%. The exit-poll swing did more to this market than months of campaigning.

A tied Knesset does not crown a winner. It starts a negotiation, and markets are betting on who negotiates better.

What to do as a reader

Read the resolution rule before trading. The market resolves on who is officially appointed and sworn in, not on who wins the most seats. That can take weeks, and it could even require a new election. Check the live Polymarket market and the official count side by side.

Watch Thursday's special-ballot count. Soldiers and other special voters make up about 10% of the total, and a shift of one or two seats changes the coalition math for an Israel hung Knesset. Also watch for any public signal from the Arab parties or a centrist party about which side they will back.

Size small if you trade at all. Prices jumped about 20 points overnight on exit polls alone. Nothing here is investment advice, and prediction markets can lose you your whole stake.

Sources: BBC, The Guardian live blog, CNN, Israel Votes 2026 results tracker and Polymarket.