Apple Nvidia market cap odds: Nvidia 63% to End October on Top

Apple Nvidia market cap odds just got interesting again. Apple briefly passed Nvidia as the world's most valuable company on Friday as its first foldable iPhone hit stores, and Polymarket's "Largest Company end of October 2026?" market now gives Apple a real shot at the crown. As of 05:59 UTC on October 25, traders priced Nvidia at about 63% and Apple at about 36.5% to finish October on top.

What actually happened

The race is a photo finish. Apple stock hit a record high near $351.73 in early Friday trading as the $1,999 iPhone Duo went on sale worldwide, and its market value briefly topped Nvidia's, according to the Yahoo Finance report. Apple's marketing chief Greg Joswiak told CNBC that preorders were exceptionally strong and pushed back on reports of production problems.

The momentum gap is clear. A CNBC Pro piece by Jeff Kilburg, published Friday afternoon, noted Apple was up about 4% in October while Nvidia was down about 7% for the month, as worries about AI financing weighed on chip stocks. Kilburg also pointed out that Apple briefly passed Nvidia in July before slipping back.

Demand looks real but supply is tight. Delivery estimates for preorders, which opened the week before, stretched into late January. Morgan Stanley's supply-chain checks, cited in the Yahoo report, point to about 6.5 million Duo units in the second half of 2026, small next to Apple's mainstream iPhones but at a much higher price.

What Polymarket thinks

Polymarket's event lists each company as its own yes/no market. Our snapshot from the Polymarket API at 05:59 UTC on October 25:

• NVIDIA: about 63% (62.85%)
• Apple: about 36.5%
• Alphabet: about 0.15%
• Microsoft: about 0.15%
• SpaceX, Tesla, Amazon, Broadcom, Saudi Aramco: under 0.1% each

The headline question here is "Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on October 31, 2026?" and it traded near 63% Yes. The whole event had about $825,000 in volume, with the Nvidia and Apple lines doing most of the work.

Two companies worth about $5 trillion each, separated by tens of billions. One good or bad session flips the board.

Read it as a two-horse race. With roughly $50 billion between them on Friday afternoon, a 1% move in either stock changes the leader. The market still leans Nvidia because it held the lead at the time of our snapshot and has more history at the top this year.

The calendar catch

October 31, 2026 is a Saturday, so there is no trading session that day. Traders are effectively looking at the last close of the month, Friday, October 30, but the rules simply say "as of market close" on October 31 and rely on "a consensus of credible reporting." If you trade, check the market page for any clarification.

Apple's earnings will not help it before the deadline. Apple reports on November 2, after the market resolves, and the Yahoo report says investors will mostly be watching the December-quarter outlook for early signs of what the Duo adds to holiday sales. That leaves this week's macro news, including the Fed's October 27-28 meeting, as the main driver.

For more on how Polymarket handles mega-cap races, see our SpaceX market cap piece. And for a crypto twist on Nvidia's stock, our Moolah NVDA pair story covers memecoins that trade against tokenized Nvidia shares.

What to do as a reader

Track the live numbers, not the headlines. Check the Polymarket market page and a live market-cap source before trusting any snapshot, including ours. The Apple Nvidia market cap odds can swing several points in a single trading day.

Watch Nvidia's AI financing story and Apple's Duo supply updates. Those are the two narratives moving these stocks right now, and either one can flip the race.

Treat a 63% favorite as a lean, not a lock. In a race this close, the underdog wins often. Nothing here is investment advice, and you should size any prediction-market trade so a loss does not matter.

Sources: Yahoo Finance on Apple passing Nvidia, CNBC on the market-cap race and the Polymarket API snapshot at 05:59 UTC on October 25.