Vancouver mayor odds: Pete Fry Beats Ken Sim, Polymarket at 99%
Vancouver mayor odds settled fast: Pete Fry beat Ken Sim 57,194 to 41,040 in the night count, Sim conceded, and Polymarket had Fry ~99% Yes at ~06:02 UTC Oct 18.
Early story. Some claims here are not officially confirmed yet. We update this post as it confirms.
- Daily Hive (10:42pm PT Oct 17 count): Fry 57,194 votes, Sim 41,040, Colleen Hardwick 10,492; Sim delivered a concession speech.
- CityNews calls it a landslide for the two-term councillor; the city says official results will be declared on October 21 by 4pm.
- Polymarket (~06:02 UTC Oct 18): "Will Pete Fry win the 2026 Vancouver mayoral election?" at ~99% Yes (last 98.3%, bid 98.5 / ask 99.8); event volume about $306K.
in this block
Vancouver mayor odds just went from a pre-election favorite to a near-lock: Pete Fry of the Vancouver Greens beat incumbent Ken Sim in Saturday's municipal election, Sim has conceded, and Polymarket's Fry contract traded around 99% Yes at our ~06:02 UTC snapshot on October 18 while it waits to settle.
What actually happened
Vancouver voted on Saturday, October 17. Results started rolling in after polls closed and Fry jumped to an early lead that never narrowed, according to both Daily Hive and CityNews. By Daily Hive's 10:42pm Pacific count, Fry had 57,194 votes to Sim's 41,040, with TEAM for a Livable Vancouver's Colleen Hardwick a distant third at 10,492. CBC also projected Fry would unseat Sim.
The path to that margin was built weeks earlier. COPE's mayoral candidate Stephanie Allen and then OneCity's William Azaroff stepped out of the race to back Fry as the single progressive alternative to Sim. That consolidation turned a split field into a two-way contest, and the anti-incumbent vote had one place to go.
CityNews reports the Greens were also on track to win a large share of their slate, including at least two council seats and two Park Board seats with half of polls reporting. Fry was first elected to council in 2018 and narrowly re-elected in 2022. He ran on affordable housing on city land, finishing the bikeway network, renewing the Vancouver Aquatic Centre, ranked ballots for mayoral races, and an outreach team for non-emergency calls.
What Polymarket thinks
The "Vancouver Mayoral Election Winner" event has been live since April and drew roughly $306K of volume. At our snapshot, Fry's Yes contract sat around 99%, with the last trade near 98.3%. Every other candidate, including Sim, was priced at a fraction of a cent. The listed end date has passed, so this is now about settlement, not prediction.
Why not 100%? Because results are still unofficial. The City of Vancouver's results page says official results, including the plebiscite questions, will be declared on October 21 by 4pm. Traders holding a 99-cent contract are being paid a sliver to wait for that paperwork and for the market's resolution process. The board is on Polymarket's Vancouver mayor event.
The last 1% on a decided race is not a forecast. It is a fee for patience and resolution risk.
That leftover cent also reflects how markets handle edge cases: recounts, disputed ballots, or a rules question about which source counts. With a gap of roughly 16,000 votes in the reported count, those risks look small, but they are not zero until the declaration.
Vancouver mayor odds versus the polls
The interesting part for odds nerds is how lopsided the final count looks compared with a race that commentators treated as competitive. The progressive consolidation explains a lot: a unified challenger against an incumbent with a contested record tends to outperform early polling that still lists several left-leaning names.
City elections are also low-information markets. Polling is sparse, turnout is unpredictable, and a single endorsement or dropout can reshape the field. That is why municipal books are good places to watch how quickly a prediction market reprices after real news. Compare our coverage of the Toronto mayor race and the LA mayor runoff odds for how other city markets behaved.
There is one more Vancouver wrinkle: the non-binding plebiscite on banning open-air hard drug use in public spaces. Fry called it a "very bad idea," according to CityNews. Its result will arrive with the official declaration and will shape how his first months are read.
What to do as a reader
If you follow Vancouver mayor odds, the trade is over and the lesson is not. Note when the market first crossed 90%, then compare that time with when the first results posted. That gap tells you how fast this book absorbs information on election night.
If you hold a position, check the market's resolution rules and the October 21 official declaration rather than refreshing the price. Do not buy a 99-cent contract assuming it is risk-free; capital locked until settlement has a real cost. Nothing here is investment advice.
Sources: Daily Hive on Fry's win and CityNews election report.
Not financial advice. DYOR, ser.
