LA mayor runoff odds Tighten as Bass Gains Despite Raman Poll Lead

LA mayor runoff odds got a lot tighter this week. Polymarket traders cut Nithya Raman from comfortable favorite to near coin-flip territory against incumbent Karen Bass, even though the newest public poll still has Raman ahead. The November 3 runoff is now a real fight, at least on the order books.

What actually happened

Two things landed at once. First, the Manhattan Institute survey included a separate sample of 449 likely voters in the City of Los Angeles, reached by live cell calls, text-to-web and an online panel. The margin of error for the LA sample is plus or minus 4.6 points, so a six-point lead is real but not huge.

Raman, a city councilmember, led Bass 38% to 32%. When undecided voters were pressed to choose, it tightened to 39% to 36%, with 15% saying they'd skip the race and 10% still undecided. Bass sat at 33% favorable and 61% unfavorable in the same poll. Political Wire picked up the 38-32 topline on October 9.

Second, Berkeley IGS and the LA Times published numbers on Latino likely voters, reported by ABC7: Raman 45%, Bass 21%, with 34% of Latino voters still undecided. Bass pushed back hard, saying it was "completely different from our numbers and the numbers we're seeing in the field."

What Polymarket thinks

The Polymarket market resolves on the candidate who wins, based on a consensus of credible reporting. At 06:00 UTC on October 10, Raman traded near 51.6% (bid 51.5, ask 51.7) and Bass near 47.5%. Over one day Raman fell about 6 points, and over a week about 10 points. Bass moved the other way. The event has traded around $15.3 million.

A smaller margin-of-victory market shows where the Raman money sits: Raman by 0-4% near 30%, Raman by 4-8% near 27% and Raman by 8-12% near 20.5%. That market is thin, at roughly $14,000 in total volume, so treat it as a vibe check rather than a forecast.

Note the disconnect. A poll released this week still showed Raman ahead, yet the LA mayor runoff odds moved toward Bass. Our snapshot doesn't tell us why traders moved. It could be positioning, the undecided story or plain order flow, and we're not going to guess.

Why the race is still wide open

The undecided bloc is massive. Thirty percent undecided in the topline, plus a third of Latino likely voters in the Berkeley IGS data, is a lot this close to an election. Bass carried 35 of the city's 43 Latino-majority neighborhoods in the primary, per ABC7, which is why her campaign is fighting the new Latino numbers so hard.

Then there's the Spencer Pratt factor. Pratt finished third in the June primary, and the Manhattan Institute found 50% of his voters plan to back neither finalist, while 28% move to Bass and 10% to Raman. If those voters show up for Bass, the gap closes fast. If they sit it out, Raman's strength with younger and college-educated voters matters more.

Who backs whom

The Manhattan Institute crosstabs explain the shape of each coalition. Raman pulls 51% of voters aged 18 to 29 and 49% of those aged 30 to 49, plus 43% of college-educated voters, 42% of Asian voters and 40% of women. Bass does best with voters aged 50 to 64 (42%), those 65 and older (36%) and Black voters (48%).

The pollster also ran a framing test. When identical policies were credited to an unnamed moderate and an unnamed democratic socialist, voters picked the moderate 47% to 39%. When the same policies were credited to New York Mayor Zohran Mamdani and San Francisco Mayor Daniel Lurie, Mamdani won 43% to 35%. Labels move voters, which makes any single topline number shakier than it looks.

What to do as a reader

Read the poll and the market together, not separately. The LA mayor runoff odds say near coin flip with a slight Raman edge, while the polling says Raman leads with a big pool of undecided and blank voters. Neither one is a sure thing.

Watch for new independent polls, turnout signals and any shift among Pratt voters. For more election-market context, check our 2026 midterms balance breakdown and the Texas Senate odds explainer. Keep any position small, since thin side markets can swing on one trade. Nothing here is investment advice.