Sudan ERR Nobel odds lead Polymarket's 2026 Peace board

Sudan ERR Nobel odds track Sudan's Emergency Response Rooms on Polymarket's Nobel Peace Prize Winner 2026 board, where the October 3 fetch showed a header print near 15.5% and an outcome/FAQ print at 16% — this desk uses the FAQ leading print of 16% for the form line and refuses to average the two.

What actually happened

Polymarket's Nobel Peace Prize Winner 2026 market is a large multi-candidate board. On the October 3 fetch, the header chips showed Sudan's Emergency Response Rooms at 15.5%, Save the Children at 6.3%, International Court of Justice at 5.5%, and Yulia Navalnaya at 3.8%, with volume about $25,677,934. Drill-down on the ERR row showed a 16% label and a Buy Yes near 15.9¢. The FAQ stated the frontrunner as Sudan's Emergency Response Rooms at 16% and Save the Children at 6%. When header and FAQ disagree by half a point, the form uses 16% from the FAQ/leading-outcome print and discloses the 15.5% header separately instead of inventing 15.75.

Market Context noted an Oct 9 announcement catalyst in the experimental summary and showed the market opened Oct 16, 2025. End-date chrome on the fetch pointed further out (Mar 31, 2027 on one block), which is settlement plumbing for a prize announced earlier — read Rules for the exact Nobel announcement source language. Volume near $25.7M makes this a thick awards board relative to thin valuation toys, but it is still a prediction market, not the Norwegian committee. Experimental AI context on the page discussed grassroots humanitarian work amid Sudan's civil war; that blurb is labeled experimental and is not used here as a committee forecast. Resolver addresses and related chrome on Polymarket are settlement plumbing; they do not change how you should treat a share price before the prize is announced.

What Polymarket thinks

At 16% on the FAQ print, ERR leads a fragmented field where no name sits in the high twenties on the fetched board. Low-single-digit institutional and journalist-protection names fill much of the rest. Celebrity and head-of-state tails printed near or under 1% on several rows. That distribution matches a committee that often favors organizations over maximalist political branding, but committee history is commentary, not a lock. These odds can gap on shortlist leaks or local reporting without this desk needing to invent either. Other named outcomes on the fetched board included journalist-protection groups, UNRWA, and a long tail of political figures at low single digits or below 1%. That tail is useful only as proof the market is fragmented, not as a ranked shortlist from Oslo. Volume near $25.7M and hundreds of comments show attention; attention is not a committee vote. Traders who screenshot only the header chip will cite 15.5%; traders who screenshot the FAQ will cite 16%. Both prints existed on the same October 3 page fetch, which is why this desk labels them instead of blending. Refresh the live board on announcement morning before you quote either number in chat.

Primary source: Polymarket's Nobel Peace Prize Winner 2026 event. Adjacent odds reading: Senate 2026 Democrats and Polymarket October Fed odds. Also Bitcoin above October 2 if you want a non-politics probability board for comparison of how memcool cites Polymarket. Keep Sudan ERR Nobel odds updates on this slug so ERR-specific prints do not overwrite a wider field article. If a mirror site reprints different percentages without timestamps, prefer Polymarket's live event.

What to do as a reader

If you only need the headline, Sudan ERR Nobel odds lead the 2026 Peace Prize board at 16% on the FAQ print (header 15.5% disclosed, not averaged), with Save the Children near 6.3%, ICJ near 5.5%, about $25.7M volume, and Oct 9 as the watch date for the announcement. Nothing here is a suggestion to buy or sell shares. Not financial advice. DYOR, ser.