next nvidia ceo odds: Ian Buck Leads at 30.5% as Board Weighs Huang
The next nvidia ceo odds on Polymarket had Ian Buck near 30.5% and Colette Kress near 27% at ~06:05 UTC Nov 12, after reports Nvidia's board was preparing to oust Jensen Huang.
Early story. Some claims here are not officially confirmed yet. We update this post as it confirms.
- Polymarket's separate market on Huang's exit being announced by December 31 jumped to about 77.5%, up roughly 62 points in a day.
- The successor market is thin, with only about $88K traded in total, so single orders can swing it.
- Nvidia had not announced any decision at the time of writing, and Huang was still CEO.
The next nvidia ceo odds just became one of the spiciest boards on Polymarket. After The Wall Street Journal reported that Nvidia's board was preparing to oust Jensen Huang, traders started pricing who replaces him. At about 06:05 UTC on November 12, CUDA veteran Ian Buck led near 30.5%, CFO Colette Kress sat near 27%, and "no new CEO by the end of 2028" held about 23.5%.
What actually happened
The scandal moved fast. On November 8, Huang acknowledged an extramarital affair in a letter to staff, and Nvidia's board opened an independent investigation into national security concerns raised in news reports. Coverage has identified the woman as Alice Huang, an executive at Megaspeed, a Singapore-based Nvidia customer; US intelligence officials reportedly believe she was spying for Beijing.
On November 11, The New York Times reported a second alleged affair, this time with Kimberly Powell, Nvidia's vice president of health care, citing five people who worked at the company. Hours later the Journal reported the board was preparing to remove Huang and could meet as soon as Wednesday. Nvidia shares dropped about 8% after hours, to around $159.76, per Cointelegraph.
No obvious heir
TechCrunch noted Huang has about 60 direct reports and Nvidia has no public succession plan. Bloomberg reported that the company is working with an outside firm to identify candidates. CoinDesk added that, under Nvidia's bylaws, directors can remove the CEO with or without cause by majority vote, but no final decision had been announced.
What Polymarket thinks
The Polymarket "Next CEO of NVIDIA?" market resolves to the first person officially announced as Huang's successor by December 31, 2028. Interim CEOs do not count, and an announcement is enough even if the person never takes the job. If no successor is named by then, the "no change" outcome wins.
Prices at about 06:05 UTC on November 12, via the Gamma API:
- Ian Buck: ~30.5% (bid 30, ask 31)
- Colette Kress: ~27%, up about 22 points in a day
- No new CEO by Dec 31, 2028: ~23.5%
- Rene Haas: ~7%, with a very wide spread
- Eric Schmidt: ~3.7%
- Jay Puri: ~2.8%
- Lisa Su: ~2%
The sister market tells you why this board exists at all. "Jensen Huang announced resignation or removal by December 31, 2026?" traded near 77.5%, and it was by far the most active market in our Gamma pull, with roughly $13.6M of 24-hour volume. Earlier strikes were lower: about 60.5% for an announcement by November 12 and 63.5% by November 13.
Reading the candidates
The next nvidia ceo odds mostly track the names floated in press coverage. TechCrunch described Kress as the insider most often named, though analysts question whether she is a natural product visionary. It called Buck, who helped build CUDA, a "builder" option that former employees have floated. Lisa Su, AMD's CEO and a distant relative of Huang, has been mentioned by The Information, but TechCrunch argued she has little reason to switch sides.
Remember the 23.5% on "no change": that is the market saying Huang could survive, or that the board could leave the seat interim for a long time.
We tracked the earlier stage of this story when the resignation market sat near 16.5% in jensen huang resignation odds. That is how fast sentiment flipped.
What to do as a reader
If you are watching the next nvidia ceo odds, keep the rules and the liquidity in mind:
- Interim is not a winner. A temporary CEO announcement does not resolve the successor market. Plenty of boards name an interim first.
- Spreads are wide. Several candidates trade with double-digit gaps between bid and ask. The prices are noisy.
- Headlines move it. A board statement, a Huang letter, or a new report can reprice this in minutes. Our numbers are a snapshot.
- Mind the spillover. Nvidia drama is already hitting AI-linked trades; our coreweave bankruptcy odds piece covers the infrastructure side of that bet.
Also see how degens turned the scandal into tokens in nvidia spy memecoin. Prediction markets can be wrong, and nothing here is financial advice.
Not financial advice. DYOR, ser.
