Bulgaria election odds: Iotova 87% on Polymarket Before Runoff

Bulgaria election odds are lopsided ahead of the October 25 presidential vote. Polymarket gives incumbent President Iliana Iotova about an 87% chance to win, after three fresh polls put her ticket more than 18 points ahead of former caretaker prime minister Andrey Gyurov, though every pollster expects a runoff.

What actually happened

Bulgaria picks a president and vice president on joint tickets. The October 25 first round now looks like a two-horse race. The rest of the field trails far behind: Vazrazhdane's Kostadin Kostadinov and Petar Volgin poll between 8.8% and 10.5% across the three surveys.

The newest numbers came on Tuesday. BTA reports the Trend survey ran September 26 to October 2 with 1,003 face-to-face interviews and a ±3.1% margin of error. Trend said a runoff is certain given expected turnout and that it saw no significant change in the race over the past month.

The other two polls tell the same story. Radio Bulgaria reports Myara's survey, run September 26 to October 4 among 1,000 adults, at 46.9% for Iotova-Valchev and 25.3% for Gyurov-Kandev. Alpha Research, run September 24 to October 1, has 44.5% to 26.1% among people firmly decided to vote.

Further down, the small tickets barely register. Myara has Ivelin Mihaylov and Yuliana Mateeva at 4.2%, Ivan Hristanov and Stoyanka Cherkezova at 2.7%, and MECh's Radostin Vasilev and Krasimir Manov at 2.2%, with 2.3% backing nobody. None of them looks close to the top two, but their voters will matter in a second round.

What Polymarket thinks

On the Polymarket Bulgaria market, Iotova traded at 87% when we checked, down 2.5 points on the day but up 7.5 points on the week. Gyurov was at 13.5%, up 5 points in a day. Every other listed name, including Kostadinov, sat at about 0.05%.

The rules matter here. The market includes any potential second round, and it resolves on the eventual winner, with Bulgaria's Central Election Commission as the fallback source if reporting is ambiguous. So nobody wins this market on October 25 unless someone wins outright.

That makes these Bulgaria election odds a runoff bet. Traders think Iotova's lead is big enough to survive a head-to-head, where opposition voters could consolidate behind Gyurov.

Why a runoff is not a formality

Turnout is the wild card. BTA says 38% of adults, slightly more than 2 million people, say they will definitely vote, while 20% are undecided. Myara puts expected turnout at 35.4%.

Alpha Research's Boryana Dimitrova added two warnings on bTV. About 30% of people firmly decided to vote could still change their choice, and she said shifts in the standings cannot be ruled out before the end of the campaign. She also said nearly 40% of people who plan to skip the vote cite disappointment with politicians. And 62.6% of respondents want a live TV debate before the first round, according to the same survey.

Party politics frames it too. In the same Trend poll, Progressive Bulgaria leads with 40.8% among likely parliamentary voters, far ahead of GERB at 14.2%. That is a strong base for the Iotova camp heading into a second round.

The spelling trap

You will see the challenger's name spelled Gyurov and Gurov in different outlets. BTA uses Gurov, while Radio Bulgaria uses Gyurov. Polymarket's listing also uses an unusual first letter in "Аndrey," which matters if you are searching for the contract. It is the same person.

What to do as a reader

Read Bulgaria election odds as a confidence check on a runoff that has not been scheduled yet, not a first-round call. If you trade this market, you are taking runoff risk, and that could tie up money for longer than the October 26 end date suggests.

Watch the debate question, turnout signals and any late poll that shows the gap closing. For other election markets this month, see our Romania PM odds and Israel election odds breakdowns. Nothing here is investment advice, just a map of where the money is.