Serbia election odds: Vučić List 61% on Polymarket as Polls Split

Serbia election odds still favor Aleksandar Vučić's camp, but the polls are all over the place. With the October 25 parliamentary vote 17 days away, Polymarket gives the Vučić-led United Serbia list about a 61% chance to win the most seats, while a new BIRODI model published on October 7 puts the student-backed list ten points ahead.

What actually happened

Serbia holds early parliamentary elections on October 25 for all 250 seats. The student movement launched its campaign on September 10 in Novi Sad, where protests began after the railway station canopy collapsed on November 1, 2024, killing 16 people, as BTA recounts.

The latest data point is BIRODI's. N1 reports the Bureau for Social Research estimates the student list could win around 2.003 million votes against about 1.593 million for the SNS-Vučić list. Its ranges are 45.9% to 51.1% for the students and 36.3% to 40.9% for SNS. Even adding the Socialist Party, SNS and SPS would reach about 42.5%, by BIRODI's math.

BIRODI says the model adjusts for systematic polling errors, models turnout and runs Monte Carlo simulations. It names youth turnout and previous non-voters as key swing factors, and says it will update as new polls come in. Its model has the Socialists at 3.2% to 4.6%, uncomfortably close to the threshold, and other opposition and minority lists at 7.8% to 10.2% combined.

The poll war

Serbian polling is a minefield, and we are not averaging any of it. Faktor Plus, published via Blic and summarized by BTA, gave United Serbia 48.6%. Its director Vladimir Pejic said SNS could count on an absolute majority if nothing changed, while noting the student list had gained 5.6 points since the previous poll. Pejic linked that jump to the People's Movement of Serbia, Ecological Uprising and New Face of Serbia leaving the race, which consolidated the opposition vote.

Patriot Vesti published another survey of 2,000 voters, finished on September 30, with the Student List at 46.7% and SNS at 39.2%. The article does not clearly name the pollster, so treat it with extra caution.

That is two numbers pointing one way and one pointing the other, from very different methods. The only safe read is that the race looks closer than Serbian politics has been in years.

What Polymarket thinks

On the Polymarket Serbia winner market, United Serbia traded at 61% (bid 60, ask 62), up 2.5 points in a day but down 4 over the week. The Student List was at 38.5%. Daily volume was about $95,000, so this market is active.

The vote-share market for the Student List clusters in the middle. The 40-45% bracket was at 33%, 35-40% at 28.5%, 45-50% at 20% and 50% or more at 12.5%. In "Next Prime Minister of Serbia?", Aleksandar Vučić was at 68.15% and Ilija Srdanović at 28.5%.

Read the rules carefully. The winner market resolves on which electoral list wins the most seats, with ties broken by total valid votes. It is not about who forms the government, so coalition math is a separate question.

Why Serbia election odds and polls disagree

Traders may be pricing things polls cannot capture well: incumbency, turnout machines, and the 3% threshold. BIRODI itself flags the SPS result, opposition vote concentration and how many lists cross the threshold as factors that could swing the outcome.

They may also simply distrust the student-friendly polls. Serbia election odds near 61% for United Serbia say traders lean toward the incumbent camp, but they leave plenty of room for an upset.

What to do as a reader

Treat Serbia election odds as a live debate, not a verdict. Watch for fresh polls from established firms, any turnout signals among young voters, and how the minor lists poll against the threshold in the final week.

If you trade these markets, mind the resolution source and the difference between "most seats" and "forms a government." For other election markets, see our Romania PM odds and Spain snap election odds breakdowns. This is not investment advice.