hegseth out odds: Polymarket Prices ~19.5% Exit by Nov 30

The hegseth out odds on Polymarket have become one of the busiest political books of the post-midterm week. At our gamma refresh around 06:02 UTC on November 7, "Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by November 30?" traded near 19.5% Yes on about $586K of lifetime volume, while the December 31 version sat near 34.5% Yes on roughly $1.86 million. Traders are pricing real danger for the Defense secretary, but not an imminent exit.

What actually happened

Republicans' midterm losses turned attention to the Iran war, and from there to Hegseth. The BBC reported that the White House denied rumours that Hegseth and Secretary of State Marco Rubio would leave, while noting that both President Trump and Vice President JD Vance have blamed the war for the defeats. In a phone interview cited by the BBC, Trump said he had received "calls about" Hegseth but had "every intention" of keeping him.

Hegseth responded by going on offense. Politico described a nearly six-minute video posted Thursday laying out his record and declaring "we don't back down," shared quickly by White House and Pentagon aides. The Washington Post reported on Friday that government watchdogs said the use of Pentagon staff and resources for that video probably violated federal law — a fresh line of attack rather than a defense.

The staffing picture also moved. Politico reported that White House chief of staff Susie Wiles will depart and be replaced by her deputy, Stephen Miller, described as supportive of Hegseth. That cuts both ways for the hegseth out odds: a friendlier chief of staff, but proof that post-election changes are happening.

What Polymarket thinks

At the ~06:02 UTC November 7 snapshot:

• Hegseth out by November 30, 2026: ~19.5% Yes (~$586K volume, ~$112K in the last 24 hours)
• Hegseth out by December 31, 2026: ~34.5% Yes (~$1.86M volume, ~$213K in the last 24 hours)

The gap between the two contracts is the interesting part. Traders give roughly 15 extra points to the December window, which lines up with the calendar: Democrats take control of Congress in January, and Republican Rep. Thomas Massie argued on X, as quoted by the BBC, that Trump should replace Hegseth "while he can still get the replacements confirmed in the Senate."

A 19.5% price is not a forecast that Hegseth stays. It is a market saying an exit this month is possible but still the underdog scenario.

The impeachment wildcard

Massie told Politico he would trigger his impeachment resolution early next week, according to the BBC. CNN wrote that Hegseth's video may have strengthened critics' case. An impeachment vote in the outgoing House is a political event, not a removal mechanism — conviction requires the Senate — so it moves these contracts mainly by changing how much pressure lands on the White House.

The resolution wording matters for anyone trading. These markets typically resolve on Hegseth ceasing to hold the office, so an impeachment vote alone would not settle Yes. Read the rules on the market page before assuming any headline counts.

For context on how these political books behaved around the election itself, see polymarket midterms accuracy and the war-adjacent pricing in iran invasion odds.

How to read the two dates

Think of the November contract as a test of whether Trump changes course quickly and the December contract as a test of whether the pressure compounds. Denials from the White House have historically not been binding, but neither have media rumours. The hegseth out odds therefore move on concrete steps: a resignation letter, a named successor, or a public break from Trump. Video statements and anonymous sourcing tend to produce short spikes that fade.

Liquidity is decent but not deep. A few hundred thousand dollars of daily volume can be moved by a single large account, so treat sudden 5–10 point jumps with caution until a verifiable report explains them.

What to do as a reader

Track primary reporting — BBC, Politico, the Washington Post, CNN — rather than screenshots, and check the Polymarket November 30 market before acting, because our snapshot ages quickly. Watch for the impeachment resolution next week and any formal personnel announcement.

If you use the hegseth out odds as a sentiment gauge, compare the two dates rather than reading one number in isolation. Size small. Nothing here is investment advice, and prediction markets can resolve against even well-reasoned positions.